Capitalism today runs on attention — and a handful of institutions control it: Meta, Google, Disney. They decide what gets seen, believed, and backed. A new generation is pushing back — tired of passively consuming what others decide is valuable. Prediction markets are part of that shift. They turn attention into agency, letting individuals stake value on what matters next.

What began as a niche of political prediction markets has exploded into a full-on cultural phenomenon. Prediction markets now exist for virtually everything: from which influencer will hit 10 million followers first, to who will be eliminated next on reality TV shows. Platforms like Kalshi processed more than $1 billion in bets in 2024, while Manifold Markets allows users to create prediction markets around any cultural moment. And now, even major players are moving in. DraftKings is reportedly in talks to acquire Railbird Exchange, a CFTC-licensed prediction platform, signaling growing overlap between sportsbooks and prediction markets.

This trend isn’t just gambling rebranded for digital natives. It’s the rise of a new market logic — one where attention is currency, and individual conviction can challenge the institutional consensus. Algorithms push content. Media set the narrative. Prediction markets let people reassign value in real time. It’s not just a new product — it’s a cultural correction, one bet at a time.

Prediction markets mark a turning point in the individuals vs. institutions dynamic we've tracked across multiple Cultural Tensions we’ve explored. Younger generations, feeling locked out of traditional wealth-building opportunities and skeptical of institutional authority, have found a way to monetize their attention and cultural knowledge directly.

Research from the American Psychiatric Association shows that over a quarter of adults (28%) now participate in online betting, with entertainment and pop culture events among the fastest-growing categories. But the psychology driving this trend goes deeper than financial gain. It's about validation and agency in an attention economy where individual voices often feel powerless against algorithmic and institutional control. 

The platforms know what they’re selling. Kalshi leans into its anti-establishment positioning: “put your money where your mouth is” on everything from government shutdowns to Taylor Swift’s NFL appearances. These are topics traditional markets ignore or dismiss. Manifold, meanwhile, positions forecasting as a tool to democratize prediction beyond expert classes.

What makes prediction markets particularly powerful is how they monetize attention in real-time. Unlike traditional social media, where platforms capture the value of user engagement, these tools let individuals profit from their ability to read cultural signals and forecast outcomes. Every bet is essentially someone saying: "I can spot what’s about to happen before the crowd does.”

It creates a feedback loop, as well. The more people bet, the more invested they become in shaping those outcomes. Someone betting on a TikToker going viral might share their content, amplifying the very trend they’re backing. Speculation becomes participation.

New startups are capitalizing on this dynamic. Beyond Kalshi and Manifold, Goss is tapping into reality TV fandoms (especially among women) by letting users bet on pop culture outcomes like Bachelor Nation drama. Shake brings a gaming layer to cultural prediction, letting users compete to forecast social trends in real time. These platforms aren’t just enabling bets, they’re turning cultural fluency into strategy, competition, and profit.

Looking ahead, prediction markets may become more than just entertainment. They could become new infrastructure for cultural insights. For startups and brands, this evolution opens up a new frontier: building tools that help people bet, shape, and profit from their attention in real time. The opportunity isn't just to forecast culture. It’s to help consumers participate in setting it and share in the upside. Institutions will try to catch up. But the breakout brands in the prediction economy will be the ones that turn cultural foresight into a monetizable edge.